epidemic and oil price push up the global deflation expectationIn fact, in recent years, the risk of deflation is constantly hovering over the world economy. In the past year, US Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell has publicly indicated that global deflationary pressure still exists. Zhou Youchuan, the former leader of China's central bank, also issued a warning at the end of the year that permanent deflation has become an unprecedented provocation to global policy. A notice issued by the research group of the Institute of world economics and politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the global economy had been threatened by deflation again long before the outbreak.
on the one hand, the central CPI of major countries in the world is close to 1% of the original deflationary criteria. For example, the central HICP (coordinated consumer price index) of the euro area is always struggling around 1% year-on-year; on the other hand, since the first quarter of the fourth quarter of 2018, the PPI fixed base indexes of major economies such as the United States, the euro area and China have returned to the downward stage, which is far from the \ According to the notice, the current global deflationary pressure mainly comes from the inability of investment needs. In the past, the growth of the global economy depended on real estate, but now the traditional pillar industry has fallen and the degree of correlation with the macro and unpleasant economy is negative. However, the new momentum of growth has not yet come, and the situation that global investment needs cannot be met will continue.However, a sudden outbreak of the epidemic has made people's feelings of economic depression and deflation expectations further escalated. Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, said that the rapid growth of the three lottery platforms, the recent popularity and major melodious performance of the global financial market, market participants' worries and depression have surpassed the short-term economic impact of the epidemic, and are increasingly turning to their concern about its permanent negative impact. Although many countries followed suit after the Federal Reserve's dangerous interest rate cut, Gao Shanwen pointed out that the market seemed to be uneasy. In the face of the negative impact of the epidemic situation and the economic downturn, the central bank had little policy space to relax monetary policy, which could show the vicious cycle of debt currency shortening and keep the global economy in stagnation forever. In addition, the recent game between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil prices has led to a sharp drop in global oil prices, which is also considered to hedge the efficiency of monetary easing and add to deflation expectations. The overseas Chinese Bank of Singapore (OCBC) judged that if the crude oil price remained at US $30 per barrel for a long period of time, the degree of inflation in developed countries would inevitably fall into a negative range. However, some experts have pointed out the difference. Sun Mingchun, chief economist of Haitong international, pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on the economy is not only the stagnation of consumption and investment on the demand side, but also the stagnation of production and traffic congestion on the supply side, so it will have an impact on the economy on both sides of supply and demand. In the context of prevention and control of the spread of the epidemic, monetary policy relaxation can only stimulate demand, but can not stimulate supply. On the contrary, it can lead to shortage and inflation, leading to stagflation. The pressure of China's price rise eased If deflation is more worrisome on the global level than deflation, it seems that inflation is what wives in China are negotiating more about. In the first two months of this year, China's CPI was in the \ Although CPI is still at a high level, a careful study of the data shows that the price rise around consumption in February was mainly driven by food such as pork and vegetables, with clear organizational characteristics. And in the same month, the central CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1% year-on-year, still in a warm range. Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the financial research center of Bank of communications, said that during the epidemic period, the demand for increase was limited. As a result, the food price in February rose to a new high since May 2018, supporting the CPI at a high level. However, non food prices and the central CPI fell clearly, which indicated that the collective needs were weak and the subsequent price rise pressure was not great. Around production, prices were stable and slightly lower. In February, China's PPI rose from 0.1% to a negative 0.4%. Tang Jianwei pointed out that industry needs to be weakened, enterprise production slows down, commodity prices and international oil prices are negative, making PPI fall into negative value again, and deflation risk performance around the industry. At the same time, the negative oil price and commodity price will ease the pressure of China's imported inflation, and the negative crude oil price will have a greater impact on PPI than CPI. He further indicated that international oil prices had fallen sharply because of the need for weak superposition. It was expected that after the domestic epidemic situation was limited, the rise of PPI and CPI could clearly fall back. The reduction of inflation pressure will also increase the space for China's macro unpleasant policy to exert anti cyclical adjustment in the post epidemic period. It is worth to be careful that, affected by the \ According to
analysis, transportation control measures have been implemented in Hubei Province, resulting in poor transportation of fresh food and limited market supply; under strict control, logistics costs and man-made costs have also been added; Tianzhi's Spring Festival holiday has been prolonged, and residents' consumption needs to be prosperous, which further promotes the rise of food prices, which has become the main reason for the rise of CPI on a month on month basis.In detail, food prices in Hubei rose 10.5% month on month in February. Among them, the prices of potato, fresh vegetables, pork, freshwater fish and fresh fruits rose by 31.2%, 27.8%, 19.7%, 11.4% and 10.4% respectively. Grain and oil markets were relatively well supplied and prices were calm. The prices of rice, edible oil, grain products and flour rose by 0.1%, 0.5%, 1.5% and 1.6% respectively. How to manage the \ Under the complex economic phenomenon, how should we manage our own \ According to Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Societe Generale Bank, some traditional high-quality assets are facing the risk of \ Lu noted that China's epidemic prevention and control has become more and more clear, and the domestic stock market and policies have been adjusted prior to overseas ones. Tianzhi China is the first to return to work. The data released is the laggard response of the previous economy, and the trend will be better in the future. However, people still have a clear expectation of overseas development. At the same time, although the growth of China's GDP has slowed down, all parties have already expected it. Moreover, China's policy space is relatively large, and the interest rate is still above 3%, far higher than that of developed economies. Traditional safe haven markets such as Japanese yen, gold and US debt are not high in income. In this sense, RMB assets are the assets with the highest Sharpe ratio. As for the stock market, Wang Han, chief economist of Societe Generale Securities, believes that behavioral risk assets, a shares may be dragged and impacted in the process of external adjustment, and still have certain weakness in the short term. However, in terms of the spread of the epidemic, the relative position of stock market valuations and the same economic fundamentals, China's collective situation is better than that of overseas developed economies. Looking back, a shares may be the main way to boost residents' property income. In addition, not only did the global stock market show adjustment recently, but also traditional safe haven assets such as gold also showed a sharp shock. The international gold price plummeted along the road last week. According to a research report released by CITIC futures, deflation has downward pressure on gold prices, but negative interest rates have a negative impact on gold friendship. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut again provides one of the conditions for gold price to stabilize and recover. In the later stage, if the oil price can effectively stabilize and lead to the recovery of inflation expectation, the gold price will not be affected by the logic of negative interest rate and has the value of crowd allocation. Du bin, chief strategist of Jinyong capital, pointed out that the global panic time will show ups and downs, which will increase the selling of all assets, including calm assets. Therefore, when the market is not clear, investors should keep the volatility and do some loose and balanced allocation on risk assets and calm assets. (source: the country is a longitudinal car)